Is a Plumber job safe from AI?

Relatively yes. A Plumber scores 7/100 on the ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index — low risk — because the role leans on hands-on, in-person, or high-judgment work that AI struggles to automate.

When will AI be able to do a Plumber's job?

Based on AI's measured task-completion horizon (METR, doubling ~every 4.3 months), AI reaches this role's core complexity ~7.6 years (2034). That projects the capability — actual adoption usually lags it.

How accurate is the Plumber AI-risk score?

It's a transparent, computed estimate — directionally useful, not a guarantee. It blends six labor and AI-exposure signals (O*NET, BLS, Eloundou task exposure, AIOE, the Anthropic Economic Index, and physical-automation data). See the methodology page for the full formula.

A Plumber carries a 7/100 AI replacement risk (low). AI can already handle quoting & invoicing; On-site repair & install still needs a person. Of exposed work, ~30% is automation vs 70% augmentation. Capability clock: ~7.6 years (2034). (ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index, 2026 data.)

Will AI replace a Plumber?

AI replacement risk: 7/100 (low risk). Low exposure — this work resists automation and is hard for AI to replace.

Timeline: 5+ years / low. Of the exposed work, roughly 30% is likely to be automated and 70% augmented. $2.1B/yr of US wages sit in highly-exposed work for this role.

AI/software exposure: 15%. Robot/physical-automation exposure: 0%.

Capability clock: AI's measured task horizon reaches this role's core complexity (~14417441.8h of human work) ~7.6 years (2034) — projected from METR's ~4.3-month doubling.

Pressure Index: 5/100 (low) — blends risk, demand trend, and real-world evidence. Job postings up 12% vs 2020.

AI tools targeting this role

ServiceTitan — scheduling, dispatch, and invoicing for field jobs

Layoff signal: none — On-site plumbing work cannot be automated, and demand remains stable.

Then vs. now: the 2013 Oxford study scored this 35%; our 2026 index scores it 7% (a fall of 28 points).

Tasks at risk

Quoting & invoicing — Automated admin tools.
Parts lookup — AI-assisted sourcing.
Scheduling — Automated dispatch.

Tasks that still need a human

On-site repair & install — Physical, variable environments.
Diagnosing hidden issues — Hands-on judgment.

Skills that protect you

Commercial / specialized systems — Complex, higher-paid work.
Business ownership — Own the customer relationship.
Green plumbing tech — Emerging demand.

Frequently asked questions

Will AI replace Plumbers?: A Plumber carries a 7/100 AI replacement risk (low). AI can already handle quoting & invoicing; On-site repair & install still needs a person. Of exposed work, ~30% is automation vs 70% augmentation. Capability clock: ~7.6 years (2034). (ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index, 2026 data.)
Is a Plumber job safe from AI?: Relatively yes. A Plumber scores 7/100 on the ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index — low risk — because the role leans on hands-on, in-person, or high-judgment work that AI struggles to automate.
When will AI be able to do a Plumber's job?: Based on AI's measured task-completion horizon (METR, doubling ~every 4.3 months), AI reaches this role's core complexity ~7.6 years (2034). That projects the capability — actual adoption usually lags it.
How accurate is the Plumber AI-risk score?: It's a transparent, computed estimate — directionally useful, not a guarantee. It blends six labor and AI-exposure signals (O*NET, BLS, Eloundou task exposure, AIOE, the Anthropic Economic Index, and physical-automation data). See the methodology page for the full formula.

Category: Skilled Trades · Methodology · Download the dataset

ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index. Last updated 2026-06-27. AI-estimated and directionally useful, not a guarantee.